Indian MMRCA competition in new economic reality

The start of comparative trials on the Indian Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender have pulled a lot of attention. First fighter under testing is American F-18 Super Hornet. While F-16 (US), MiG-35 (Russia), Rafale (France), Eurofighter (EU partnership) and Grippen (Sweden) are following it in yet known sequence.

However, the principal question is: whether the huge deal remains as actual as before? Didn’t it loss its importance or\and financial weight? Are Indian's tops still ready to pay for foreign customer that huge sum: $10.5 billions, as was planned early, prior to the world financial crisis was started?

Common sense suggests that nothing could run just as before, while the crisis shown its unhandsome face. Countries like USA, Great Britain, France ponder significant reduce of their military spending. The most ambitious programs, like American stealth-fighter F-22, were cut. Although India happens to be between the less suffering (economically) countries, the behavior of its decision-makers cannot be untouched. The economy gross of India will be significantly lower this year if not negative. The prognosis for 3-years perspective is mostly gloom for World economy, while second wave of crisis is rather possible. Being economy professional the Indian PM Mr. Manmohan Singh would be well aware of consequences for the country's over-stretch in running for too ambitious targets.

In 'liquidity hunger' context the Indian government has already started recalculation and re-consideration of its current military purchase line with clear accent on indigenization and domestic production. Now the recession-induced fall of price on metals and labor has already allowed India activation of its domestic ship-building efforts. Recently a number of new ships for Indian Navy were launched along three country's shipyards.
There is lot of recommendations around, about what could be the best choice for India in this tender. Should be fruitful to discuss something different question too: what candidate will most probably be the winner? More one interesting question: whether MRCA tender will be cancelled at all, and, as the Indian Air Force tops already hinted, the addition number on Su-30MKI fighters would be bought to keep depleted number of fighters.

In such case India instead of medium size aircrafts could buy 'of-the-shelf' or in 'semi-knocked down condition' 60-100 heavy Su-30MKI, $45 each bird – i.e. slightly above the current Mirage-2000 upgrade program, recently signed with French ($40 each plane). In this case the number of 'Rambha's (Su-30MKI) could exceed 300+ in IAF in 2013-2015 and the continuing fall in squadron number (now 32 instead of 39,5 minimal and 44 recommended), the progradient loss of superiority against Pakistan and the growing lag with China could be reversed. Such step could also become a 'security belt' too for the Indian long awaited LCA program, which suffers with new delays contributed to more ambitious requirements of the Indian generals for its engine power.

However, MMRCA tender cancellation would be a heavy blow for Indian image as a serious military stuff buyer, and evident 'lost of face' for Mr. M. Singh personally. So, the other way is not inducing totally new aircraft with unfamiliar service, new infrastructure and new line of weapons but purchasing something known (partially at least) for current system. There are only two contenders which fighters can be plugged in contemporary IAF infrastructure and logistic chain: MiG-35 and Rafale. The first is naturally the deep modernization of well known for IAF MiG-29 air-dominance fighter. The main difference – is its multi-role capability (for ground strikes) much longer airframe and engine life and less intensive service. I don’t think any totally new for India plane has a chance as a MMRCA contender.

The strong side of MiG-35 in this competition is seriously under estimated. First I don’t think, those who said MiG-35- is a 'paper plane' are right. Currently demonstrated model is indeed the produced in serial MiG-29K airframe with thrust-vectoring engine nozzles and new AESA radar, capable to use new long range missiles. The most tech risk has the radar, although all other competitors with except of Americans, have same problem with their AESA. However, more deeply reworked variant with lighter, more composite dense airframe is possible too. It's for Indian side to evaluate the tech risk and risk of delay that are accompanied the most ambitious configuration or third part involvement.

Is need to say, the IAF is yet to decide whether it needs thrust-vectoring on MRCA or not. Also is unclear, if government of India is still ready to pay for superb quality (AESA, 5th gen engine), or concerning recession has changed its preferences. Now India is involved in too many ambitious programs for its Air Force (FGFA, LCA, MCA, massive upgrades of old planes) and recently GoI has already signalized for generals and R&D men about its intention to reduce the number of programs and intensifying efforts on the most important of them.

Considering all such circumstances the probability for least expensive but still decent aircraft to win MMRCA is going to grow. The estimated price of MiG-35 in its most advanced configuration is ~$40 mil or even less considering falling ruble. Therefore, in my humble opinion MiG-35 has the best chance to be chosen. The current conditions - number depletion and recession - don’t allow for IAF to decide between 'good and excellent' but rather between bad and decent.

Other contender with non-zero probability to be chosen is Rafale. Its chances to win are rather good if the recalculated preferences of the program are indeed calculated as I do predict. With its price slightly above $60 mil each it's logistically and operationally similar to well known to the Indian pilots Mirage-2000. Without any doubts this will reduce the cost of introduction significantly. According to some estimation, the cost of fly is 30,000 EUR per hour and it's cheaper than MiG-35 has. Rafale (just like MiG-35 in form of MiG-29) is in serial production, thus if the customizing ambitions of the Indian side are not very high, the purchase could run very quick. The partnership with France (just like with Russia however) promises for India more friendly environment for transfer of technology, but in current circumstances, I think, it's became less important then a year ago.

Only a year ago I personally thought the American 'Super Hornet' had real chance to win if not was the leader. India then 'ought' to US to give something in turn of known 'nuclear deal'. However, now the time is different, there are some signs, that GoI has chosen another way 'to satisfied' the Americans well apart with MMRCA contest. The last out of tender contracts for P8l marine recco aircrafts and transport planes is a clear indication, which says the American birds will not win MMRCA…