Monday, November 23, 2009

A cheap alternative for submarine launched ICBMs

Dec. 5, 2009 the SALT-1 Agreement is expired. I want to be wrong, but personally I think there is only a few possibility to finalize the new Strategic Weapon limitation treaty between US and RF. The difference in positions is too wide and the time remained is too little. So, the ideas about what to do if a new nuclear race starts, are still actual as well despite some progress occurs in US-Russia relations during Obama presidency. This article is the opinion of a Russian military expert in the Russian English-language magazine 'National Defence', issue 1, 2009.

The OCRed text is below:


Alexander MOZGOVOI
Five leading research institutes in Germany dealing with the issues of peace have recently published a joint report noting that a new surge of arms race might be more dangerous than that of the Cold War years. The United States, which accounts for approximately half the global defense expenses, is the initiator of the race. «A spiral of mutual distrust has been activated, feeding the desires to strengthen the national security,» -German researchers state. In this context they have approached the German government with a requirement to oppose the US plans to deploy a BMD system in Eastern Europe, because such an antimissile umbrella would only trigger a new dangerous round in armed confrontation in the world.

The German researchers' report was published shortly after Dmitry Medvedev warned the United States that Russia would be forced to take adequate measures toward it in a response to the deployment of a US BMD system in Europe. And a bit later there was a slew of news on Moscow's plans to deploy its strategic bombers in some Latin American countries. The Russian officials denied the news after a while. But, as the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire, and the news kicked up a row. «If they did it (i.e. deployed the bombers somewhere in the southern underbelly of the US - A.M.), I think we should stand strong and indicate that is some¬thing that crosses threshold, crosses a red line for the United States,» said General Norton Schwartz, the US Air Force's chief of staff, at a hearing in Congress. And further: «We will call on the Russians not to consider this measure.» It turns out so: when the US crosses a red line near the western borders of Russia this is normal, whereas Russia's appeals to the Americans to change their mind can be merely ignored.

The truth is that the deployment of Russia's strategic bombers at Cuban or Venezuelan air bases will hardly pose a real threat to the US since they are large and easily detectable targets. However, the moral pressure not only upon the military, but also on the civilians in the United States would surely be extremely great.

Among the countermeasures that Russia may undertake in response to the US antimissile fence nearby its home, are also the deployment of the Iskander precision theater missile systems with ballistic and cruise missiles in the Kaliningrad region, and transfer of the Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers with precision-guided weapons to forward airfields. Yes, the Iskanders and Backfires are an effective weapon that, if employed, will give someone few chances of survival. But it would be directed against the US allies in NATO, rather than the United States itself which basically doesn't care about the fate of its partners in the alliance.

There are also other variants to take the US military down a peg or two. For instance, Colonel General Victor Yesin, former chief of the Main Staff of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), Vice President of the Russian Academy of Security, Defense and Law Order Issues, said that our country could develop orbital ballistic missiles «able to reach the US territory via the South Pole bypassing the US BMD bases». At one time the Soviet Union renounced such systems under the START-1 Treaty.

However, the orbital ballistic missiles are a very costly pleasure, they will have to be redeveloped, and it remains still unknown whether they will survive attacks by future space-based directed-energy weapons. Another variant mentioned by General Yesin looks much more acceptable and involves «equipping the Topol-M ICBMs with hypersonic maneuvering warheads, deployment of a great number of jammers reducing the efficiency of BMD components tens times, as well as shortening the boost phase of ICBMs.» The year 2004 saw the first successful tests of a Topol-M missile with a hypersonic maneuvering warhead. And this variant looks as one of the most promising counter-measures.

As is known, all eggs are not placed in one basket. And the security of our country is certainly a matter of greater importance. The more so the key element of adequate countermeasures must involve a qualitative increase in the level of threat to the territory of the United States itself and to the life of the population of that country.
Therefore, the traditional deterrents (SMF, naval strategic nuclear forces, and strategic bombers) need to be supplemented by new unconventional or as currently referred to as asymmetric ones. In addition, such weapons should be sufficiently simple and cheap whenever possible. Diesel-electric submarines powered by auxiliary air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems and equipped with small stealthy short- and medi¬um-range ballistic missiles, having extremely short time of flight to tar¬get, may become a variant of such a system. All current and future BMD facilities will simply have no time to respond to their launch properly.

Naval versions of the Land Forces' Iskander or Oka theater missiles with a range of 280 to 400 km will serve as a basis of such a weapon system. Blasting off from a sub¬merged submarine, they will be capable of punching any BMD system from a «pistol» distance.

The high capabilities of Russia's Iskander are well known. Specifically, Uzi Rubin, a former director of the Israeli Missile Defense Agency, who headed Israel's Arrow missile defense system, thinks that the Iskander boasts built-in countermeasures allowing it to defeat western BMD systems. According to the Israeli expert among such countermeasures provided for by the Russian designers are active maneuvering at the boost and terminal phases, a low trajectory, and a low radar signature achieved by using appropriate mate¬rials. A naval variant of the Iskander, especially if fired in salvo, will give missile countermeasures no chance.

Why is this variant preferred? Look at a map of the United States. The majority of big cities in the country are located along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts or near these water areas. Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Norfolk, Miami, New Orleans, and Houston in the east of the country, Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego in the west are easily accessible targets for such missiles.

Why do diesel-electric AIP-equipped submarines have to carry such missiles? Nuclear attack sub¬marines are very expensive, and it is better to use them to defend our own strategic missile nuclear-powered submarines against the enemy in their operational patrol areas. They are also the excellent platforms for firing long-range cruise missiles. Compared to them, AlP-equipped submarines are several times cheap¬er being superior to them in a num¬ber of characteristics, primarily in noisiness. Suffice it to say that the US Navy failed to reliably detect the Swedish submarine Gotland equipped with a Stirling AIP plant during two years of intensive tests conducted in the US. Recently, similar tests were carried out with the Italian fuel-cell AIP submarine Salvatore Todnro. The result, too, proved discouraging for the US Navy.

Unfortunately, in the 1990s Russia lost its leading position in the field of ship air-independent propulsion systems. The development activities in this sphere were actual¬ly curtailed due to the lack of fund¬ing. For instance, we are currently 15 to 20 years behind Germany in fuel-cell AIP units.

However, Russia still leads the world and even holds monopoly on auxiliary nuclear powerplants (ANPP) that serve as compact ship-borne powerplants generating electrical current for motors. In the mid-1980s, the K-68 diesel-electric sub¬marine (later redesignated B-68), equipped with cruise missiles, underwent refit to Project 651E designed by the Lazurit Central Design Bureau. During the refit work the 9th container compartment with a 600-kW VAU-6 ANPP was installed below the 8th compartment. The boat tests yielded excel¬lent results. The continuous sub¬merged range has increased from 350 miles at an economic speed of 2.8 knots using storage batteries to almost 7,000 miles at an economic speed of 4 knots using the ANPP.

In the late 2007, the Project 20120 test submarine B-90 Sarov, developed by the Rubin Central
Design Bureau for Marine Engineering, was taken out of its slipway at the Sevmash Shipyard. It is a general-purpose testbed intend¬ed for testing new samples of weapons and military equipment. In July this year the boat completed its trials and on August 7 was handed over to the Navy. According to some sources, it can be fitted with a low-capacity auxiliary nuclear power-plant. If this is the case, one can say that Russia has entered a new phase of underwater shipbuilding. Ten to twelve submarines equipped with short-range ballistic missiles will be needed for continuous patrol near the west and east coasts of the United States. Considering those in transfers, at bases and under repair, approximately 30 such boats will be required. Given their relatively low cost, the number doesn't look too large. Here it is appropriate to recall that in 1955 alone - a mere ten years after the destructive war ended -the USSR built over 70 diesel-electric submarines.

The appearance of diesel sub¬marines armed with short-range ballistic missiles near the coast of the United States is like a pistol placed to head. In such a situation everyone would feel uncomfortable, to put it mildly. The US will have to radically revise its naval strategy, whereas its naval ships scattered all over the world will have to be pressed to the coasts of North America in order to somehow reduce the threat level. But the efficiency of such efforts will still raise doubts.
Will Russia cross the red line, deploying its sub¬marines off the US coast? It certainly will. Washington and Moscow will have to find mutually acceptable solutions at the negotiating table to prevent this happening.

National D E F E N S E   11/ 2009


  1. igor

    can u tell me which seeekr is this R27 picture

  2. sorry here is URL


  3. to igorr copy and paste option doesn't work

  4. to anon November 23, 2009 11:47 PM:

    seemingly a browser problem. I use Opera and have no such bugs.

  5. to anon November 23, 2009 6:01 PM:

    your links dont work

  6. Why can't the US adopt Live and Let Live attitude? If it has so much surplus money why waste billions of dollars on developing new defence techs instead of donating the money to poor nations of Africa where there are deaths due to starvation. I think Russia is forced to spend more on defence than on development due to this attitude of US. :)

  7. to Manish Kumar:

    The World economic system allowing to US the leadership position in wealth, is based on crude American force, which they use every time they see threat to their domination. If they dont act so, they loss the American welfare and the American dream. In this aspect they are like the Antique Roman Empire. Decline of their military power will mean decline of economy, based on an unfair world order.

  8. to igorr

    try this again

  9. to anon November 24, 2009 2:36 PM:

    most probably it is the semi-active 9B-1101К of 'Agat'. In 1995 the more advanced active seeker for R-27 was not developed yet.

  10. Hi Igorr,
    any more information regarding mig-35?

  11. This idea of a sea based Iskander sounds good. Is it serously being considered in Russia?

  12. to TASS:

    It's rather serious idea, periodically published by number of experts but never confirmed officially. Russia has no yet a platform for such launchers. It could be a 'Sarov' class subs with VLS if go to serial.

  13. igorr could you please translate the video on NIIP website, the largets one (221 MB) speaks of BARS

  14. Dear Igor did you have any new information about
    BARS-M new AESA radar for Su- 30 MK.
    And did you read information that this radar is offered to Indonesia.

  15. "If it has so much surplus money why waste billions of dollars on developing new defence techs instead of donating the money to poor nations of Africa where there are deaths due to starvation"

    Where have you been? Yes, they have been donating billions to Africa. And yes, people keep starving. Why? Because there're still dictators like Mugabe, who with their families have proved a amazing ability to absorb any unlimited amount of money.

    "I think Russia is forced to spend more on defence than on development due to this attitude of US"

    Thats BS. With their nukes arsenal, who's dumb enough to invade the Rus?

    BMD is purely defensive. Unless the Rus plans to nuke the former Eastern Europe countries, why has to make such a fuss?

    And by the wait, if the Rus hadnt helped Iran to build its nuclear ambition, how on earth BMD could have asked for money from the Congress?

  16. "And by the wait, if the Rus hadnt helped Iran to build its nuclear ambition, how on earth BMD could have asked for money from the Congress?"

    My friend,the Russian help in building the nuk plant for Iran is not as big a concern as the Chinese tech and Pakistan help in building the centrifuges for enriching the uranium to weapon grade that should concern the world. The western countries are so smitten with the world's "low cost" manufacturing hub that they are willing to ignore everything that the Chinks do. To me, this is the most scary thing. The Chinese have visions of ruling the world and currently the only country with hegmonic designs.

  17. To Saberhagen: In the post Cold War Era where the military capabilities of Russia were depleted siginificantly and spending on developing new technologies came down considerably US could have slowed down its defence spending as there was relatively low threat from Russia. Its economy was shattered. It did not have enough bucks to develop new technologies. Whatever the Russia did in Post Cold War Era was to some how counter the US. The US developed F22, JSF 35, AESA & stealth technology and it is 10 to 15 years ahead of Russia. Russia is no match to US. Igor your views on this.

  18. to Manish Kumar:

    ==The US developed F22, JSF 35, AESA & stealth technology and it is 10 to 15 years ahead of Russia. Russia is no match to US. Igor your views on this.==

    - In some aspects yes, but in other aspects US are only try now to catch Russia. Like ABMD which Russia is still 10 years ahead of Washington with its working 20 years anti-ballistic ring around Moscow & the central region.

    Like so , the same is in many positions of the Naval warfare (high speed torpedos, anti-ship missiles, miniaturized nuclear propulsion etc)- Russia keeps the leading.

    As about AESA - Russia kept the leading position in PESA technology which up to now (Irbis, Fregat) gave superb characteristics for radars. AESAs are only starting to be mature technology, and Russia is actively starting to go from PESA to AESA, but no hurt for this since a good proved PESA some times much better then an unrelible, overprices AESA.

  19. to igorr

    what is URL of arsenal website which produces IR seekers and HUD

    and any info about aviasvit 2008 in which arsenal showcased new MR-2000 IR seeker for R27T upgrade

  20. Arsenal design house was merged in November 09 with Arsenal serial plant . Some manufacturing will be closed. Source: THe destiny of its early projects are uncertain right now.

  21. to igorr

    as you know that there are brochures about ZHUK familty of radars and bars,osa,irbis e along with full detection ranges

    but is there such infomation about SU34 PESA radar and as well as sea dragon radar for MPA upgrade along with detection ranges?

  22. i mean there is apy10 radar brochure which says tells the detection ranges for different RCS.

    is there such information about sea dragon radar

  23. to anon December 3, 2009 6:25 PM:

    Look for sea dragon radar characteristics in the online book 'The Naval Institute Guide to World Naval Weapon Systems'

    BTW: new pics of Sarov submarine on a Russian site:

  24. 4th June, 2007.

    President putin is wrong when he says that russia should or will target the missile on europe if america goes with anti missile defence plan in Europe.
    Russia must target (rather than should) the nuclear missiles with multiple war heads against all the cities, towns and big villages( including military instalations) of england because this cold war -like the one before- is being started by england for the benefit of english race is race war between the english parasite race versus the rest of the world-the sooner the rest of the world realizes that better it is for the world.
    look how germany wes villified soon after fall of soviet union-look how russia is being vilified immediately after Putin made russia strong.
    look how american has been isntagated for perpetaul awar by the british bastards. Aritish spy naill faergussan and huntingtosn go to usa and preach hatred and racial inflammmatory speech telling americans that the time for religious and civilization war has come-why do these english bastards not figtht their war by thier own means rather than on shoulders of american arms?
    thse same biriths bastrds talking of religious(chrisitan and muslim ) war propagandasie hispanics, iriash , ger,ams , french as not in american chritisan groups. they also do not think those white europeans to be thier kind wich desreves to be ion america-such is the evil propaganda of britihs spies inside america. .
    poland is nothing but a proxy for the british bastards.
    itis no use targetting poland -target the main villain which is england and the english race which m ust be aniihilated fromt the face of the world.

    28th april,2007.

    The foreign policy sections of Putin's Message were relatively brief, but pointed. They continued what he began Feb. 10 in his speech to the Munich "Wehrkunde" Conference on Security. Putin zeroed in on the types of programs that go by the name of Project Democracy (since the founding of the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy, in the 1980s):

    "There are those who, making clever use of pseudodemocratic phraseology, would like to bring back the recent past: some, in order to be able to loot our national wealth with impunity, as in the past, to rob the people and the state; others, to strip our country of its economic and political independence. In addition, there is a growing influx of foreign money, used for direct interference in our internal affairs. If we look to more distant times in the past, we see that during the hey-day of colonialism, there was talk about an alleged civilizing role of the colonizing states. Today, 'democraticizing' slogans are used. But the goal is the same: to achieve unilateral advantage for one's own benefit and interests."

    How the Empire will Prevail: Will Washington Foment War Between China and India?

    by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
    What is Washington’s solution for the rising power of China?

    The answer might be to involve China in a nuclear war with India.

    quote"The Chinese ultimatum is important, because it is a WWI or WWII level of ultimatum. With this level of commitment of China to Pakistan, Washington will now seek a way to maneuver itself out of the confrontation and to substitute India.

    The US has been fawning all over India, cultivating India in the most shameful ways, including the sacrifice of Americans’ jobs. Recently, there have been massive US weapons sales to India, US-India military cooperation agreements, and joint military exercises.

    Washington figures that the Indians, who were gullible for centuries about the British, will be gullible about the “shining city on the hill” that is “bringing freedom and democracy to the world” by smashing, killing, and destroying. Like the British and France’s Sarkozy, Indian political leaders will find themselves doing Washington’s will. By the time India and China realize that they have been maneuvered into mutual destruction by the Americans, it will be too late for either to back down.

    With China and India eliminated, that only leaves Russia, which is already ringed by US missile bases and isolated from Europe by NATO, which now includes former constituent parts of the Soviet Empire. A large percentage of gullible Russian youth admires the US for its “freedom” (little do they know) and hates the “authoritarian” Russian state, which they regard as a continuation of the old Soviet state. These “internationalized Russians” will side with Washington, more of less forcing Moscow into surrender.

    As the rest of the world, with the exception of parts of South America, is already part of the American Empire, Russia’s surrender will let the US focus its military might on South America. Chavez will be overthrown, and if others do not fall into line, more examples will be made.

    The only way the American Empire can be stopped is for China and Russia to realize their danger and to form an unbreakable alliance that reassures India, breaks off Germany from NATO and defends Iran.

    Otherwise, the American Empire will prevail over the entire world. The US dollar will become the only currency, and therefore be spared exchange rate depreciation from debt monetization.

    Gold and silver will become forbidden possessions, as will guns and a number of books, including the US Constitution.

  26. While United Satans seek to steal resources of Africa's richest state Libya by force and NATO proxies, and targets wealthy nations that do not possess WMD, it cannot touch China. Great Brother Leader Mu'ammar Qaddafi warned on his web site since many years that the (nuclear) confrontation between United Satans and China is inevitable.

    Moreover, foreign United Satans Treasury buyers may not only be financing their own endangerment, they're also buying a depreciating asset, what analyst Matthias Chang calls dollar denominated "toilet paper" from a "toilet paper printing press....issu(ing) irredeemable fiat money."
    =============================================================================== Military War is the most primitive of all kind of wars which are fought each day..


  27. nato is an organisation created to serve the piracy and bullying of the thrid rate country england after the second world war-america did nto need nato england needed that to serve her purpose onback of american arms
    “isolationist” (realy an anti-meddling) is a code word used by england and her agents in usa to decry those people in america who donot want the whole of usa resources put to the benefit of english race and england and who may not want the peprpetaul wars being waged by england on the strenthg of american arms
    NATO is an organisation created to maintain the pwoer of england throughamericna arms to bully germany and europeans and to keep russia down all for beenfit of england and usa got sukced into it through british agents in usd media and politics and business.that is what isonalist means one who is not willing to sacrifice for the beenfit of england.

  28. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    IN 2008 Russia and china had the opportunity to destroy IMF and world bank and the american -british system of looting the world ;but foolishly these two countries ,on prompting from parasite england, recommended IMF and world bank to lead new economic system! How stupid of these countries and that is why they never go up in world because of their stupidity.
    IMF and world bank were created to help bankrupt england in second world war and it is meant to serve none but england and her parasitic descendants and hanger-on’s in usa and Britain and anglo countries.
    Secret memos expose link between oil firms and invasion of Iraq

    by Paul Bignell