Friday, December 3, 2010

WikiLeaks about Russian mil export

Between the classified document I have found the US embassy 2007 year report. Very interesting sometimes...

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 MOSCOW 005154


EO 12958 DECL: 10/09/2017

TAGS PREL, ECON, MARR, MASS, PARM, PINR, PINS, RS

SUBJECT: ADDRESSING RUSSIAN ARMS SALES

REF: A. STATE 137954 B. MOSCOW 3207 C. MOSCOW 3139 D. MOSCOW 3023 E. MOSCOW 557 F. MOSCOW 402

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


¶1. (C) Summary: FM Lavrov’s disinterest in establishing an expert level dialogue on arms sales begs the question of how best to address our concerns over Russia’s arms export policy. Russian officials are deeply cynical about our motives in seeking to curtail Russian arms exports to countries of concern and the threatened imposition of U.S. sanctions has not proven successful so far in modifying Russian behavior. Russia attaches importance to the volume of the arms export trade, to the diplomatic doors that weapon sales open, to the ill-gotten gains that these sales reap for corrupt senior officials, and to the lever it provides the Russian government in stymieing American interests. While Russia will reject out of hand arguments based on the extraterritorial application of American sanctions, Russian officials may be more receptive to a message couched in the context of Russian international obligations and domestic legislation, the reality of American casualties, and the backlash to Russian strategic interests among moderate Sunni governments. In making our argument, we should remember that Russian officialdom and the public have little, if any, moral compunction about the arms trade, seeing it instead as a welcome symbol of Russia’s resurgent power and strength in the world. End Summary



-------------------------

Russian Arms Sales Matter

-------------------------



В¶2. (C) Russian arms sales are consequential, totaling approximately USD 6.7 billion in 2006, according to official figures. This amount reflects a 12 percent increase over 2005, and a 56 percent increase since 2003. Russian arms sales are expected to total at least USD 8 billion in 2007. Russia has made a conscious effort to improve after-sales customer service and warranties, which has added to the attractiveness of its weapons. As a result, Russian weapons command higher prices than previously. Russia is ranked second only to the United States in arms sales to the developing world, and a sizeable portion of its arms trade is with countries of concern to us.



¶3. (C) While no sales were reported in 2006 to Iran, Syria, or Sudan, in 2007 Iran reportedly paid Russia USD 700 million for TOR-M1 air defense missile systems. While Syrian economic conditions are a natural brake on trade with the Russians, as a matter of principle the GOR is prepared to sell “defensive” equipment such as anti-tank missiles and Strelets (SA-18) surface-to-air missiles, as well as upgrade MiG-23 fighters. The GOR barred the sale of Iskander-E tactical missiles to Syria only after intense international pressure. Venezuela remains a growth market, with arms transfers in 2006 totaling more than USD 1.2 billion, including 24 Su-30MK2 fighter-bombers and 34 helicopters. Russia has an “open arms” approach to Venezuela, and whether it’s the transfer of more than 72,000 AK-103 assault rifles or negotiations for the prospective sale of three Amur class submarines (valued at USD 1 billion), Russia is prepared to entertain Chavez’s grandiose regional visions.



¶4. (C) Defense experts emphasize that the American and European domination of traditional NATO markets and capture of new entrants (and old Soviet customers) from Central and Eastern Europe means that Russia must court buyers that fall outside the U.S. orbit. By definition, Iran, Syria, and Venezuela are good markets for Russia because we don’t compete there.



¶5. (C) While concrete numbers are hard to come by, our best figures indicate that Russian arms sales to its traditional big-ticket customers -- China and India -- are growing. Russian experts, however, predict a declining trajectory in the medium term. In 2006, Russia completed approximately USD 1.4 billion in sales to China, including eight diesel submarines and 88 MI-171’s, which means the PRC only narrowly edged out Chavez as Russia’s most important customer. Russian defense experts underscore that as China’s technological sufficiency and political influence grow, the PRC will develop increasing military self-sufficiency and greater ability to challenge Russia as a supplier. At the same time, sales to India totaled only USD 360 million. Russia and India, in fact, have signed arms deals worth USD

MOSCOW 00005154 002 OF 004

2.6 billion, but not all deliveries and payments have been made. While Russian experts still downplay the ability of the U.S. to displace Russia in the Indian arms market, for reasons of cost and the legacy of decades’ old dependence, they recognize increasing American inroads and growing influence. Other notable Russian markets include Algeria, Czech Republic, Vietnam, South Korea and Belarus.



-----------------------

A Legalistic World View

-----------------------



¶6. (S) As the recent 2 2 consultations confirmed, Russian officials defend arms sales to countries of concern in narrow legal terms. In answering our demarches, MFA officials always identify whether the transfer is regulated by one of the multilateral arms controls regimes (e.g. Wassenaar Group, MTCR, etc.), UN resolutions, or Russian law. Senior officials maintain that Russia does take into account the impact on the stability of the region in determining whether to sell weapons and shares our concern about weapons falling into terrorists’ hands. This Russian decision-making process has led to a defacto embargo on weapons transfers to Iraq, where Russia is concerned over leakages to Iraqi insurgents and Al-Qaida; to a hands-off policy towards Pakistan, the country Russia views as the greatest potential threat to regional stability (with then-Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov ruling out weapons sales to Pakistan as far back as 2003); and to a moratorium on “offensive” systems to Iran and Syria. Concern over leakage has prompted Russia to tighten its export controls, with the recent institution of new provisions in arms sale contracts for Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) that require end-user certificates and provide Russia the right to inspect stockpiles of weapons sold.



В¶7. (S) What Russia has not done is accept our strategic calculus and rule out the possibility of sales to Iran, Syria, Sudan, or Venezuela. The arguments made are broadly similar:



-- With Iran, we are told that that Russia will not sell any weapon that violates a multilateral or domestic regime, nor transfer any item that could enhance Iranian WMD capabilities. Sales, such as the TOR-M1 air defense missile system, are justified as being defensive only, and limited by their range of 12 kilometers. While DFM Kislyak told us October 18 that he was unaware of any plans to sell Iran the S-300 long-range surface-to-air missile system, MFA officials previously told us that such sales, while under review, would not violate any Russian laws or international regimes.



-- With Syria, Russia also argues that its transfers are defensive in nature, and points to its decision to halt the sale of MANPADS. The MFA maintains that Russian weapons used by Hizballah in 2006 were not a deliberate transfer by the Syrian government, but involved weapons left behind when Syrian forces withdrew from Lebanon. Russia argues that tightened end-user controls will prevent any future transfers.



-- With Sudan, the GOR denies any current arms trade with the regime, and maintains that Russia has not violated UN sanctions or Putin-initiated decrees. However, based on our demarches, it is clear that -- in contrast to Syria -- Russia has adopted a “don’t ask, don’t tell” approach to Sudan’s adherence to its end-use requirements for its existing inventory of Russian/Soviet weapons.



-- With Venezuela, both MFA officials and Russian experts believe that a “Monroe doctrine” mentality, and not real concerns over regional stability, is behind U.S. demarches.



-----------------------------------

What Is Behind the Russian Calculus

-----------------------------------



¶8. (C) A variety of factors drive Russian arms sales, but a compelling motivation is profit - both licit and illicit. As former Deputy Prime Minister and senior member of the Duma Defense Committee Anatoliy Kulikov told us, “Russia makes very bad cars, but very good weapons,” and he was among the majority of Russian defense experts who argued that the laws of comparative advantage would continue to propel an aggressive arms export policy. While Russian defense budgets have been increasing 25-30 per cent for the last three years, defense experts tell us that export earnings still matter. The recent creation of RosTechnologiya State Corporation, headed by Putin intimate Sergey Chemezov, which consolidates under state control RosOboronExport (arms exports), Oboronprom (defense systems), RusSpetsStal (specialized steel production), VSMPO (titanium producer), and Russian

MOSCOW 00005154 003 OF 004

helicopter production, is further proof of the importance the Putin government places on the industry.



¶9. (C) Likewise, it is an open secret that the Russian defense industry is an important trough at which senior officials feed, and weapons sales continue to enrich many. Defense analysts attribute Russia’s decision to sell weapons that the Venezuelan military objectively did not need due to the interest of both Venezuelan and Russian government officials in skimming money off the top. The sale of Su-30MK2 fighter-bombers was cited as a specific example where corruption on both ends facilitated the off-loading of moth-balled planes that were inadequate for the Venezuelan Air Force’s needs.



¶10. (C) A second factor driving the Russian arms export policy is the desire to enhance Russia’s standing as a “player” in areas where Russia has a strategic interest, like the Middle East. Russian officials believe that building a defense relationship provides ingress and influence, and their terms are not constrained by conditionality. Exports to Syria and Iran are part of a broader strategy of distinguishing Russian policy from that of the United States, and strengthening Russian influence in international fora such as the Quartet or within the Security Council. With respect to Syria, Russian experts believe that Bashar’s regime is better than the perceived alternative of instability or an Islamist government, and argue against a U.S. policy of isolation. Russia has concluded that its arms sales are too insignificant to threaten Israel, or to disturb growing Israeli-Russian diplomatic engagement, but sufficient to maintain “special” relations with Damascus. Likewise, arms sales to Iran are part of a deep and multilayered bilateral relationship that serves to distinguish Moscow from Washington, and to provide Russian officials with a bargaining chip, both with the Ahmedinejad regime and its P5 1 partners. While, as a matter of practice, Russian arms sales have declined as international frustration has mounted over the Iranian regime, as a matter of policy, Russia does not support what it perceives as U.S. efforts to build an anti-Iranian coalition.



¶11. (C) A third and related factor lurking under the surface of these weapons sales is Russia’s inferiority complex with respect to the United States, and its quest to be taken seriously as a global partner. It is deeply satisfying to some Russian policy-makers to defy America, in the name of a multipolar world order, and to engage in zero-sum calculations. As U.S. relations with Georgia have strengthened, so too have nostalgic calls for Russian basing in Latin America (which Russian officials, including Putin, have swat down). While profit is still seen by experts as Russia’s primary goal, all note the secondary thrill of causing the U.S. discomfort by selling weapons to anti-American governments in Caracas and Damascus.



----------------------------

Taking Another Run At Russia

----------------------------



В¶12. (C) As FM Lavrov made clear during the 2 2 consultations, Russia will not engage systematically at the expert level on its arms export regime. While the prospect of Russia changing its arms export policy in response to our concerns alone is slim, we can take steps to toughen our message and raise the costs for Russian strategic decisions:



-- Although U.S. sanctions are broad brush, the more we can prioritize our concerns over weapons sales that pose the biggest threat to U.S. interests, the more persuasive our message will be. Demarches that iterate all transactions, including ammunitions sales, are less credible. Since Lavrov has rejected an experts-level dialogue on arms transfers, it is important to register our concerns at the highest level, and to ensure that messages delivered in Moscow are reiterated in Washington with visiting senior GOR officials.



-- In the context of potential violations of international regimes and UNSCR resolutions, Russia needs to hear the concerns of key European partners, such as France and Germany. (In the wake of the Litvinenko murder and subsequent recriminations, UK influence is limited.) EU reinforcement is important for consistency (although Russia tends to downplay the “bad news” that European nations prefer to deliver in EU channels, rather than bilaterally).



-- Regional actors should reinforce our message. Russian weapon sales that destabilize the Middle East should be protested by the Sunni Arab governments that have the most to lose. Given Russia’s competing interest in expanding sales

MOSCOW 00005154 004 OF 004

to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, the protests of our moderate Arab partners could also carry a price tag for Russian defiance. The same is true for Latin America, whose leaders to date have not made sales to Chavez an issue on their bilateral agenda with the Russians.



-- The appearance of Russian weapons in Iraq, presumably transferred by Syria, and the prospect of American and coalition casualties as a result could change the calculus of Russian sales to Damascus. The more evidence that we can provide, the more Russia may take steps to restrict the Asad regime. At the same time, we need to be prepared for the Russian countercharge that significant numbers of weapons delivered by the U.S. have fallen into insurgent hands.



-- Finally, providing the Russians with better releasable intelligence when arguing against weapons transfers to rogue states is essential. Our Russian interlocutors are not always impressed by the evidence we use to prove that their arms are ending up in the wrong hands. While we doubt Russia will terminate all its problematic sales for the reasons described above, more compelling evidence could lead the GOR to reduce the scope of its arms transfers or tighten export controls.



------------

Final Caveat

------------



¶13. (C) There are few voices in Russia who protest the sale of weapons to countries of concern and no domestic political constraints that tie the hands of Russian policymakers on this score. The pride that Russian officialdom takes in the arms industry as a symbol of Russia’s resurgence is largely shared by average Russians. American concerns are interpreted cynically, as the disgruntled complaints of a competitor, and viewed through the prism of a 1990’s story line in which the West seeks to keep Russia down, including by depriving it of arms markets. Burns

25 comments:

  1. Hahahaha...

    Thanks for posting.

    That explains all the claims by Merica Strong Bois that Iran is helping the Iraqi and Afghan insurgents. They simply wanted Russia to sell less weapons.

    Ironic that the Americans are aware of the problem yet ignore the obvious solution...

    Russia lost its eastern european market when the Warsaw Pact collapsed and now all they are left with is markets the US doesn't want to have weapons. The obvious clear solution would be for the US to let Russia into the NATO and other markets... but the diplomats aren't that stupid because they know their claims of all the kickbacks that Russian politicians are supposedly getting US politicians make livings from kickbacks and most would work without salaries because of the amount of money they get on the side. Not to mention cushy jobs when they retire with the companies that supported them and they supported.

    I agree with Robin Williams, the comedian. US politics would be much more transparent if senators had to wear their sponsors names on their jackets like Nascar racers...

    ReplyDelete
  2. any new info or pictures of ins vikramaditya

    ReplyDelete
  3. I don´t know how to read some of this stuff...

    Venezuelan purchases are simultaneously an ominous threat to regional stability, while also being un-needed, non-functioning equipment. Is there any sources as to the Venezuelan Air Force´s disatisfaction with Su-30`s? Or is this just a case of eating one´s own bull-shit?

    Great point GarryB... That also in the context of NATO´s honorable promises re: eastern expansion, of course. And if one actually beleived this story about Russian politician´s being motivated over arms sales kick-backs, why isn´t the US lining up to buy Russian planes and helicopters which they actually need? (given that would apparently put the Russian government in their pocket, if one believes the Russian government is so easily bribed). ...Obviously, there´s plenty of bribery within the state, but not at a level to sway strategy, including whom to sell weapons to. If Russian politicians need money, there´s plenty to be had in corrupt dealings in other areas, oil, gas, metals...

    ReplyDelete
  4. The suggestion by Americans that the so called mothballed aircraft sold to Venezuela didn't meet their needs suggests the Americans have a clue what Venezuela needs.

    Considering Venezuela wanted Flankers to replace F-16As that were rotting and useless through lack of spares because the US cut them off anything in the Flanker range would be a huge step up. The R-27 does not have a wonderful reputation in the west but any BVR missile is more valuable than the none fitted to the F-16A.

    The reality is that Chavez is supported by the peasant majority and he is not looking after the very rich and powerful in Venezuela... even just 25 years ago that would have gotten him branded a communist dictator. The obvious problem with that of course is they have elections and he keeps getting re-elected despite the CIA trying every dirty underhanded trick in the book to undermine democracy in that country. I am sure they would be calling him a terrorist or supporter of terrorism right now if it wasn't for the fact that the US buys its oil rather cheaply from Venezuela.
    The problem with the US is not that it bullies other countries, or does evil things, or acts in its own interests and will sht on any country... even ones it is having a reset or has a special relationship with.
    The problem is that the US sounds like a christian tv evangelist and the world has sinned but the US has the answer... let them have all the money and the power and lots of cars and a huge house and lots of holiday houses and we all go to heaven. You are all sinners and the US will tell you all about those sins even though most of them the US will happily do itself without blinking an eyelid.

    Well we knew it was full of sht, but wikileaks has shown us in black and white, or should I say brown.

    Is it standing in front of us begging for forgiveness all greasy and sweating with slick back hair and shiny white teeth that look so perfect they are probably false like the smile they create?

    No. It seems it is wiki leaks fault. As if wikileaks has some responsibility to be a good American... and keep their mouths shut and keep dreaming the American dream. Problem is it is only the Americans that are asleep.

    ReplyDelete
  5. And the worlds media outlets are more interested in stories about the australian guy who runs wikileaks than the information the site has leaked.
    So much for a free independent media.

    I guess you must be busy at the moment Igor, but I was wondering what you thought of recent photo releases that claim to be object 195?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Garry, the photo is too bad to go for conclusions, especially what turret it has. From some sources was known, that there are at least two variants of prospective tank were presented for gov by UVZ and went to tests near Moscow. At least one must have uninhabited turret.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Igor!
    Hope you, your family, and friends are keeping well.
    I am not sure you Russians have different New Year according to Russian calender (similar to the date of Christmas being celebrated in Russia) or you follow the Gregorian calender. Nevertheless, I wish you, your readers, other Russians, and all the people who believe in democracy, a very Peaceful New Year 2011.

    Well.. Before the New Year arrived, China shocked the world with its 5th Gen fighters. Initially these pics were considered photo-shopped, but now many critics consider them genuine. Indeed Chinese guys are really fast! I wonder the workers get any holidays in Chinese military factories? The latest pictures show the fighter is a mixture of F-22, F-35, PKA-FA + Chinese. Did Chinese steal the drawings from US/Russia by hacking or through other means so that their job made easier? Anyway, Mr. Gates will be chewing his tongue!

    Igor, in some of these comments, I read that Chinese 5th Gen fighters are using Russian Engines. Could you confirm this? If it is true, I want to ask, Are the Russian Politicos are crazy? Is India-Russia financing Chinese J-XX fighter? It is really disappointing that Russia still hasn't really understood the real threat. Or Is it because somebody in Russia are not willing to accept China as a threat? Being an outsider, I feel that Russia is falling into Chinese Plan.

    Thank you & Happy New Year 2011!

    Abhijna

    ReplyDelete
  8. They have always said the turret will be uninhabited but they never promised it would be small. Considering claims for sensor fusion with long, medium, and short wave thermal sights, MMW radar and even Lidar and other systems plus the now likely EO jamming suite and active and passive protection systems and even a suggestion of a 30mm cannon mounted so that it can be elevated and fired independant of the main gun I would expect a fairly large turret though without crew or ammo in it I would suspect it would not need heavy protection so it could be quite lightly protected as battle damage will not kill the crew or make the vehicle explode. Protection from heavy calibre cannon would suffice.

    Personally I think some sort of arm that can raise a thermal sight and perhaps an MG mount so the tank can hide behind cover and look for targets supplanted with a UAV should provide excellent situation awareness without having the hatches open and that would take up space on the roof as well.
    I have discussed this with other people on the internet and they claim it would give away the tanks position... but they assume that only Russian tanks will be fitted with this arm. Recon units could use exactly the same arm and if detected it can quickly lower the arm and run, whereas a tank might just drop its arm and move to a position nearby where it can engage any enemy forces that approach its former (revealed) position. As I mentioned it should be used from behind cover... not just behind concealment... not the same things.

    Hope you had a good xmas and have a great new year. :)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Dear Igor
    Wish you and ALL Russians A Very happy New year

    Igor Have you seen the Photos of a new Chinese Stealth Plane called J 20 which is going around on the internet

    It is quite similar externally ; to the F 35

    Please find out more on this

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi,
    china Defence Blog says, J-20 has been tested with two engines, one Chinese and the other one Russian.

    Please understand I am critical of Russian Govt because I like Russia. So take these comments in +ve way.

    I just do not understand the Russian Govt decisions. Is the Russian Govt shooting its own feet? A Powerful China is always a BIG threat to Russia than to any other country, and than by another other country, including US. From my interactions with Russian friends, I felt that Russia has huge problem of having aged population and there aren't enough young generation to take Russia to the world. So any "thoughtless" decision by Russian Govt will have huge repercussions for the future of Russia and is going to affect the present young generation.

    I can understand the cold-war mentality of some western leaders and Russian leaders. But arming another enemy with the logic "my enemy is also your enemy" is not going to work for Russia.

    As far I know, through some pics and discussions by Russian friends, many of the border towns of Russia with China are completely occupied by Chinese. Russian police do not venture there or are not allowed to enter. Of course, I haven't visited there and so how true was these, I do not know. but photos talk a lot. So I asked one question to my Russian friends- do you think Far Eastern States of Russia will be under Chinese in 15-20 years.

    So what is the foreign policy of Russia? Is there any strategy for the future? I feel that Russian leaders and Govt Planners (ex-communists) still think Russia will be a Super Power forever, and so it is okay to provide the Russian Tech to China, which opposes US-Japan-SK.

    abhijna!

    ReplyDelete
  11. What is you problem with the Russian government abhijna?

    The Russians haven't provided the Chinese with 117S engines as used on the Su-35, if the Chinese have tested Russian engines on this new prototype they will have used Al-31s which they have plenty of because they licence produced Flankers a while back.

    Russia is not prepared to sell China the Su-35 till the end of this decade (when T-50 enters service with Russia and India I suspect) and even then it is unlikely to be a contemporary Su-35, but more like one today.

    If anything it is the western investment in China that is making it economically, politically and therefore militarily more powerful.

    I suspect the Russian foreign policy with China is to remain to sell current or previous generation material to help pay for the development of next gen stuff for themselves.

    China might be revealing photos of what it calls a 5th gen fighter but they can't even copy RD-33 engines from the 1980s with the gearbox shifted and renamed RD-98s for export to Pakistan.

    Don't get me wrong, in some areas they have improved immensely... except working conditions and workers rights which is a little ironic for a communist country... but what is expected from the western powers who made their wealth on the backs of cheap labour and raw materials and energy.

    ReplyDelete
  12. abhijna,

    There are lot to say about Chinese invading to Russia of course. But this more reflects the problem of illegal migration in developed countries as a whole, mostly not Chinese BTW. If Chinese counted as 100-200 thousands in the Far East mostly, the whole migrants number is close to 8-10 mln in Russia. So needs proportional view on the problem.

    The tech leak to China is not only Russian problem. Not need to remember, that tank engines the Chinese have got legally from Germany and the helo engines technology and licensee - is from France. GarryB said right: China gains its power from open Western market, especially from US, investments and technology too. Did Russia help China to build 2nd world super-computers? Did only Moscow opened its universities for millions Chinese students, spy laboriously for their 'loved Motherland'?

    ReplyDelete
  13. To be truthful the Chinese have been migrating around the world for quite some time... and their treatment when they arrive is often much worse than for arrivals with lighter coloured skin.
    Here in New Zealand there were a huge number of Chinese that came here for the various gold rushes that stayed on. They tend to value education much more than other arrivals here and while the first generation Chinese arrivals had market gardens or small shops selling fish and chips, the second generation went to university and were doctors and lawyers.
    They do tend to intermarry and keep together but if you make friends you make friends for life.
    Rarely do you see a Chinese name in the court news... they are actually some of our best citizens. The most recent generation however tend to be tainted with the same attitude of all the other generations.
    They already have an enormous population and have to import much of the resources they need... I can't see much changing in the future where they would feel the need to go to war for more... unless the US does something stupid like a trade embargo or whatever like they did to the Japanese just before WWII, or Taiwan declares independence.
    The sad thing is that everyone has Americas' and Europes colonial mentality... fearing a powerful China. Isn't it possible for China to be more powerful than it is today and still for it to be a trade partner?
    Is it truly the case that the only safe and good world is on we dominate ourselves?
    We have had that for the last 20 years and I didn't really think it was much good.
    Perhaps a multipolar world with lots of more powerful countries like India, China, Brazil, Egypt, Russia, Indonesia, etc etc.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi GarryB and Igor,

    I do agree that there are a lot of western tech in Chinese military vehicles and weapons. In fact someone commented that J-20 has a lot of similarities with F-22, especially the tail part. So did China get the F-22 tech by hacking pentagon sites or an industrial espionage? I do not know. BTW, did you read the Renault Espionage involving some Chinese?

    I do agree with Igor about the universities where Chinese students study. In US there are a lot of Chinese followed by Indians and South Koreans. Some time back, couple of my American colleagues commented that some of these Chinese Faculty and their group employ only Chinese students, no matter where the funding come from, whether DOE, NSF, etc, first qualification should be "Chinese". So these all Chinese group were nick named as "China town" or "Great Walls of China in US"

    But there are a lot of difference between the China of 5 years ago and China of now. Even one Chinese said he was very much amused to see why should Communist China be so belligerent now? He added, China can really be a world leader silently, especially in this economic trouble.

    Of course there are a lot of illegal immigrants every where. But what is more dangerous is the illegal immigrants around the border area. For Russia it is very important considering the huge size and less people to administer the Eastern regions. US is far away from main land China and immune to any direct aggression by China. Illegal migration of Chinese is not a problem for US. But any illegal immigration from Mexico creates huge problems in US. So for Russia, illegal immigration is huge problem. What will happen to these towns 10 years from now? India is also facing the illegal immigration. Huge number of Bangladesh people have dominated the border areas of India, especially the North-Eastern States of India and West Bengal, thanks to the politicians and the communist administration in West Bengal. I would say, India already lost these towns unofficially to Bangladesh. Many of these immigrants crossed over to India for jobs, but some are involved in anti-national activities including terrorist support, drug, prostitution, etc.

    Many Chinese and Indian immigrants stressed education and that's why one sees successful Chinese and Indians in US and other nations. But Now, if you visit some of the Chinese forums and read the comments by Chinese in various forums, the tone of Chinese, especially the young, is changing. They are talking about China as the world super power. If the intention of Communist China is very clear about its rise that it is not for any super power nor seeking one-sided leadership, then I support a multi-polar country. But Communist China is very secretive and if its only intention is to rule the world by flexing its muscle then world will not see peace any more. I remember the following quote/saying (I think Abraham Lincoln commented this, though not very sure): "Democracy may be bad, but it is better than any other form of government." So I may not not agree with some of the US policies, but if a Communist China with the intention to become super power by flexing its muscle is more dangerous than any corrupt democratic country. Then I prefer a democratic power. That's why I say, Russia should keep a distance with China. Do not put all the eggs in a single basket- this is very much true in this scenario. It was true for US also as it put all its eggs in Chinese baskets against former USSR.

    abhijna!

    ReplyDelete
  15. What I was trying to get across to you... and seem to have failed at, is that it is not military sales from Russia that is creating growth and progress in China, it is western investment in China... Western companies see an enormous semi skilled labour force they can use to make their products ultra cheap with no hassles like dental or medical insurance, no problems with demands for better wages... anyone that stands against the company and the company just says to the communist Chinese government that they will stop building factories in China and go to Mexico instead. All of a sudden those people with legitimate complaints disappear in very suspicious situations and the next lot of workers line up to apply for the new jobs.
    It is not Russian greed that is the problem here, it is western greed... the enormous irony is that democracy works best when everything is cheap and the best way to make things cheap is to have a slave labour class. In ancient times the slaves actually were slaves... now they are in poor countries who are slaves in comparison.
    Chinas growth hasn't been the last few years, it started like the Growth of Japan and South Korea and Germany just after the end of WWII, the Korean War and the end of WWII respectively and is directly attributable to US and western investment at the time.
    The real power of the west is not the atomic bomb, it is the ability to make you rich like Germany and Japan and South Korea, or to make you poor or keep you poor like Cuba, North Korea, Iran, etc etc.

    Regarding Chinese immigrants... if you can get them to adopt the culture of their new country they can be your best citizens... if you treat them well and make it clear they are now Russian or New Zealander or where ever they are now you will look at them and wonder why you didn't invite them to come.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Now Igor... I must protest.
    6 threads in October 2010, then none in November 2010 and only 2 in December 2010 and here it is half way through January 2011 and no post this year.

    Be Honest.

    Are you seeing another Blog behind our back?
    It isn't that B1tch down the corner that wears those short skirts is it?

    :) :) :) :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hi Igor,
    I second Garry on this...
    Either do something or just kill it.
    Because this blog goes on lower than strict minimum activity lately...
    We had many important things happening in Russia and globally like buying of Mistrals, J-20 etc. yet not single post or word from you...

    Perhaps you should post something on and let GarryB do talking (he likes it anyway ) : ))

    No hard feelings I write that be cause I liked this blog very much and used to check on it regularly.

    Take care

    P.S.
    Don't fall for this Garry's "another Blog" provocation Igor cause I have seen GarryB on some other blogs lately! :))

    ReplyDelete
  18. Steady on PAK FA Fan.. Kill it????

    There are few enough English language blogs on the internet run by people who don't hate Russia, or Putin and just want a channel to whinge about this that or the other thing

    This blog has a very good history of quality of information that I find very interesting... especially for the price charged for it....

    I appreciate that you have a life Igor and that your world likely does not centre around this Blog... I know what it is like to start something and be keen and interested and that over time you don't feel so keen and other things seem more pressing.

    I totally retract what I said as being unreasonable, you post when you can and want to and feel no pressure just because I check it two or three times a day just to check for a new post.

    You know we don't have an exclusive relationship and that I am free to see other blogs, just as you are Igor, but you know I save my deepest insights for this one... :)

    Anyway whatever you are doing good luck and hopefully see you here soon.

    PS wonder if this good cop bad cop routine will work PAK FA Fan?

    ReplyDelete
  19. @GarryB
    Ha ha ha !
    I just deliberately over dramatize in hope that will push Igor in posting something (finally) :-) D

    But I fully join your excellent comment Garry and wish Igor good luck in whatever that might be!

    @Igor

    Visiting this blog was great and even if stops now it will be remembered....
    Thanks for all the great posts Igor !


    P.S.
    Well,sorry Garry for spoiling my "bad cop routine" :-)

    ReplyDelete
  20. Igor: Really sad to hear about the terrorists attack at Moscow Airport. My sincere condolences to the bereaved family members and to the People of Russia.
    Just like Mother India faces the Islamic terrorism, Mother Russia faces the same enemy. Sadly, the country which provides moral and practical support to Islamic terrorists is awarded, thanks to its lie to curb the Islamic terrorism.
    There must be constant sharing of intelligence among the democratic countries to stop this menace. It is high time for Russia and US to shed any differences between them so that they share intelligence and warn other friendly countries. Otherwise, both are going to suffer. And who is going to benefit from the fall of US and Russia? The answer is always available. US is powerful, but Russians are tougher and stoic.
    Best Wishes!
    -An Indian

    ReplyDelete
  21. to igor

    u said

    Zhuk-AE with 680 MMICs, its TWS\attack number is 30\6.however, the 688 mm 1064 MMICs variant is ALREADY INSTALLED on MiG-35 and went to Indian tender tests!
    ---------------------------------------------
    is there any picture of 1064 mmic 688mm varient of zhuk ae??

    ReplyDelete
  22. to igorr

    can u throw some light on NK-93 engine and its development and specifications

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  23. Dont forget that Wikileaks is a US/Western secret services operation. Nothing but a controlled deposition of info (true, false or half-true). In fact, if you play close attention to their "leaks" you will see that only 10% of them are "anti-West" and bring nothing new to the table (it is only to increase their "rebelious" street-creed) and 90% serve US-Western interests.

    A case in point is this "leaked" report, full of pro-US propaganda...

    ReplyDelete